Archive for September, 2009

9-11: Delta 1989; relationship to UA 93

Thursday, September 17th, 2009

Recently, Fox News aired a special, “9/11: Timeline of Terror” on the 8th anniversary of 9-11.  Major General Larry Arnold was among the voices heard describing the events of the day.  It is not clear if the clips featuring General Arnold were made for the special or were file footage.  My speculation is that it was file footage since General Arnold misspeaks about NORAD knowledge of UA 93.  The plane he is heard describing was Delta 1989.  NORAD had no knowledge of UA 93 in the time frame to which General Arnold refers.

The Commission Staff spent time with General Arnold explaining to him, using a radar presentation based on 84th RADES radar files, that the plane they observed meandering that day was, in fact, Delta 1989.  He acknowledged that fact.

As I have stated elsewhere, the only hijacked plane track forward told (electronically linked) by NEADS that morning was track B-89.  That was the track for Delta 1989.  That fact that it was track number 89 is coincidental.

Here is a graphic, based on 84th RADES radar files showing the relationship of Delta 1989 and UA 93.  The graphic was created on September 16, 2009. UA93 and Delta 1989

9-11: NRO Exercise; a case of over-analysis

Friday, September 11th, 2009

In the Bobcat article I made the following observation: “Snapshots of the Commission’s work are prone to misinterpretation…the imposition of post facto understanding and awareness on facto and pre-facto conditions. Discrete pieces of staff work are just that, pieces of a vastly larger puzzle; sometimes they fit, sometimes they don’t.” In this article we will consider another piece of the puzzle that did not fit, the radar track of the early morning DC-area traffic helicopter and its relationship to the NRO exercise. There was no relationship.

The NRO Exercise, a first order of business

High on my list of early things to do was to get to the bottom of the NRO exercise scheduled for the morning of 9-11. Without access to the scenario assessing the NRO exercise was problematic. The 84th RADES radar files were the first delivery of actual data; they included a RADES workup of an aircraft which not only flew near the NRO, it flew near the Pentagon, CIA Headquarters, NSA, NIMA, Ft Belvoir and Quantico. It also appeared to have taken off from Andrews AFB. It got my attention for a time. Following is a screen print of the flight.Traffic HelicpoterIt took off from near Andrews at 6:46 and landed at the same site at 7:27; it flew between 0900 and 1200 feet.  The green returns are reinforced (radar and beacon), the red returns are beacon only.  The reason so much of the flight was picked up as beacon only was its altitude.

The Traffic Helicopter

Intuitively obvious in hindsight, it was not immediately apparent that the track of interest to the 84th RADES was the early morning traffic helicopter. So I spent time reviewing the radar files and comparing the track to 1:250,000 maps. I focused on agencies and facilities and overlooked the fact that the aircraft was also following, in general, the I95/395 and I66 corridors and the 95/495 beltway. I discussed the track with DoD and FAA personnel at several locations. No one had any particular insight or knew of anything operational that morning that was relevant. In a discussion with Andrews Tower personnel it occurred to them that the morning traffic helicopter lifted off early every morning from a private pad in the area. And that was the end of that.

Snapshots in the work  files

One snapshot is a comment in the Andrews MFR, linked above.   A second snapshot is a coversheet filed with the NRO exercise scenario, itself. That cover sheet was applicable to RADES  radar track screen prints and to 1:250,000 maps hung throughout our office to plot planes and areas of interest. It had no relation to the NRO exercise scenario itself.

Even though I had handwritten “NRO” on it at an early stage in our work it was not a piece of the puzzle that fit anywhere.  I over-analyzed a non-event.

9-11: Teaching History; California, two different approaches

Friday, September 11th, 2009

Today is the 8th anniversay of the 9-11 attack and it has been over five years since the Commission published its report.  Since that time (August, 2004) I have run a continuous Google Alert, “9-11 Commission,” to monitor news and commentary on events of that day. Yesterday, September 10, 2009, an alert popped up in my queue which prompted me to address the subject of teaching the history of 9-11.

In this Google alert. The author, Zach Milners, speaks to a program named the “September 11th Education Program: A National Interdisciplinary Curriculum, provid[ing] seven lesson plans, which can be taught as independent lessons or as a semester-long course of study. A website [is] devoted to the program, learnabout9-11.org.”

This morning, on the front page above the fold, the Washington Post featured an article by Eli Saslow titled; “9/11 as a Lesson, Not a Memory.“   The article also refers to the National Interdisciplinary Curriculum and lists six high schools among those across the nation piloting the curriculum.  One high school listed is Hollywood High School, Los Angeles, California.

Yesterday my Google alert also surfaced this article.  The author, Carl Herman, states he is a “teacher of high school US History courses.”  A Google search indicates he is most likely employed by La Canada Unified School District, La Canada, California.  His approach is different as the article title suggests: “Who are 9/11 Truthers? What is the 9/11 Truth Movement?”

Presumably, the California Department of Education realizes the two quite different approaches at two different California high schools and will monitor and report on the progress of each.



9-11: Air Defense Response; first things first, the Scott Trilogy (part 2)

Monday, September 7th, 2009

This is the second in a series of three articles concerning the Scott trilogy.  To set the stage, I recommend a reading of the short introductory article and the article concerning the first of William Scott’s three articles published in 2002.  In this article we will consider Scott’s second article,Command Cells Speed Airspace Reactions,” published June 10, 2002.

FAA/Military Interface

Government functions because agencies establish relationships with each other to facilitate work and the flow of information.  Since the military is a constant presence in air space controlled by the FAA it is natural that such relationships would have developed over time between the military services and the FAA. In this article we will identify and discuss three such relationships in existence on 9-11.  The three are the Air Traffic Services Cell (ATSC), the Central Altitude Reservation Function (CARF) and the exchange of liaison officers.

Some have speculated that because of these relationships the FAA had direct, immediate, and responsive communication with the military concerning the events of the day, in other words what FAA knew in real time the military, especially NORAD, also knew in real time.  That was not the case as we shall see.  None of the three relationships was structured to help with the battle that morning.

Two, the CARF and the liaison function, were ultimately helpful in establishing a secure communications link between the NMCC and FAA, but not until the fate of all four hijacked aircraft had been determined.  All three, especially the ATSC, were extremely helpful the rest of day as the nation transitioned to military control of the sky; they were not helpful in fighting the battle itself.

Scott’s first article, setting the stage

Scott’s first article is a departure point for our discussion.  In that article Scott stated, “the…hijack notification was being passed by phone to a Norad [sic] command center…and the joint FAA/Defense Dept. Air Traffic Services Cell (ATSC) colocated with the …Command Center in Herndon…”  Scott provided no antecedent to tell us who made those two passes.

Moreover, Scott’s own reference is to a page in a December 2001 AW&ST article which simple shows the floor layout at Herndon.  There is a desk specifically designated for the DoD/CARF, but not the ATSC.  It was not a desk normally occupied except when needed, according to Herndon managers who briefed the Commission Staff.  Two desks in the immediate vicinity were for the Air Traffic Association and the National Business Aircraft Association.  Scott’s source article stated that the latter two organizations were represented on the operations floor and “in a fluke, so was what Herndon called the ‘military cell’.”

Scott set up his second article with this passage in his first article: “The Air Traffic Services Cell [was]created  by the FAA and the Defense Dept. for use when needed to coordinate high priority aircraft movements during warfare or emergencies.  The Pentagon staffs it  only three days per month for refresher training, but Sept. 11 happened to be one of those days.”

He segued smoothly into a discussion of a small office “established after the 1990-91 Persian Gulf War to facilitate movements of military aircraft in U.S., Pacific and European airspace.  Reservists assigned to ATSC have strong backgrounds in fighter, tanker, AWACS and strategic airlift operations.  Many were also pilots.”  This was not a crisis management operation, it was simply a routinized process set in place to manage significant military use of domestic and foreign airspace.

Scott goes astray

As we discussed in the first article, Scott had little help to validate what he was being told.  He clearly gained the impression that the ATSC was something more than it turned out to be.  He assessed it this way.  “That experienced cadre…paid dividends on Sept. 11, when the cell quickly became a key communications node during the military’s response to terrorist attacks.”  Scott then goes on to give a reasonable account of how valuable the ATSC was, except that value came in the aftermath, well after the battle was over.  The ATSC played no role in the response to the four hijacked aircraft that morning.  Before we can establish what actually happened we first need to consider the other two interface functions, the CARF and the liaison officers, and we start with the CARF.

Central Altitude Reservation Function

The CARF operated a secure facility co-located with the ATSC.  Its function is further described in the Robert Williams MFR. Among other activities, “the primary space they reserve is for military movement overseas, and for mass military movements.  They also handle ‘more unusual’ circumstance [sic] like the dropping of rocket boosters for a space shuttle launch..”

As a secure facility it had phone lines capable of linking to the NMCC.  The Commission Staff determined that sometime in the 10:15 time frame a CARF member, Rayford Brooks, was monitoring the Air Threat Conference Call.  Brooks and Williams, both civilian, were two people on duty in the CARF that morning.  Although the CARF mission was to provide military interface its work force was civilian, no military personnel were assigned.  ATSC was the military cell which, according to the Williams MFR, “co-join[ed] the CARF office for the practicality of proximity for secure information.”

In order to find out how the CARF ended up as the FAA node on the Air Threat Conference Call we first need to discuss the last of the three interface functions, liaison officers. Scott did not discuss the liaison function in his article.

Liaison between FAA and NORAD

A long-established liaison relationship existed between FAA and NORAD.  At FAA Headquarters that relationship was formalized as “Detachment Two,” the military liaison office at FAA headquarters, commanded that day by Colonel Sheryl Atkins.  Each service had its own liaison officer who reported to his/her service directly but worked administratively under Atkins.

FAA regional offices also had military liaison officers assigned.  In the Northeast those officers were accredited to both the New England Region and the Eastern Region and split their time between the two.  None of the liaison officers at any level had crisis management responsibilities.

In Atkins case she was en route work when AA 11 struck the North tower and was at FAA Headquarters by the time the second plane struck. She went to the 10th floor shortly after AA 77 struck the Pentagon, but reported to the Air Traffic Situation Room not the Washington Operations Center.  Atkins and the other liaison officers were effective in the management of airspace in the aftermath but were not engaged in the crisis, itself.

The liaison relationship was a two-way arrangement.  FAA liaison officers were accredited to key NORAD echelons, including NEADS.  At NEADS, Steve Culbertson was at the Headquarters when the World Trade Center was twice struck. (Note: Leslie Filson’s notes at one point have Culbertson at the Headquarters after the second plane struck and, later, headed for the SOCC before the second plane struck.)  My recall is that when he learned that FAA was having difficulty communicating with the military he went to the Sector Operations Center to help.  That would be closer to 9:30 and that initiative is documented in the primary sources of the day.  The NEADS tapes show that a few minutes after 9:30 Steve Culbertson was looking for a STU-III (secure telephone) and Major Nasypany is heard asking the SOCC Director if Culbertson can use his STU-III.  According to the Staff’s interview with Culbertson he estimated that the line was established around 10:15.

Culbertson and Bill Ayers, the DoD Airspace Manager for NEADS, are among the unsung group of people who struggled that day to bring order out of chaos.  Their effort, according to Filson’s notes, became the Domestic Events Network (DEN).

Back to William Scott

Scott, in his second article discusses only the ATSC.and that’s OK, given the time at which he was writing.  He focused on the visible and the tangible and that was the ATSC embedded with the Herndon Center.  Our treatment here of the CARF and the Liaison Function between FAA and NORAD completes the record.  He teed up the ATSC in his first article and made it the centerpiece for his second article.  In his opening sentence to the second article he gets the story right, “a small group of Air Force reservists and FAA air traffic experts [including CARF] started working on the inevitable next phase–how to restore the National Airspace System.”

And that was their proper role.  There should be no expectation that the three linear process in existence discussed in this article could have or should have been engaged earlier than they ultimately were.  I will add these three processes/functions to the growing list of identifiable linear procedures in effect on 9-11.



Chaos Theory: 9-11 Linear Processes/Functions, a listing

Monday, September 7th, 2009

Added cockpit notifications on Feb 23, 2010

The list of linear processes or functions in place on 9-11 is growing; a running list is needed. A qualitative analytic approach using descriptors may be appropriate, TBD.

  1. Air Traffic Control procedures for airplanes that deviated from the norm. Ineffective
  2. Airline lock-down procedures. Counter-productive
  3. The Hijack Protocol between FAA and DoD. Irrelevant
  4. Rescue Coordination Center Procedures. Counter-productive
  5. FAA Primary Net. Ineffective
  6. Air Threat Conference Call. Ultimately dominated
  7. NOIWON Conference. Irrelevant
  8. SVTS Conference. Disruptive
  9. Air Traffic Service Cell Function, Effective later in the day, not relevant during the battle
  10. Central Altitude Reservation Function, Effective later in the day, became the FAA secure node on the Air Threat Conference Call
  11. FAA/NORAD Liaison Officer Function, Effective later in the day, facilitated the linking of FAA to the Air Threat Conference Call
  12. Secret Service VIP Protection. Disruptive
  13. COOP/COG. Counter-Productive
  14. Cockpit notification, belated (added this item on Feb 23, 2010

9-11: The Bobcats; a teachable moment

Friday, September 4th, 2009

Several correspondents have alerted me to recent interest in the Bobcats by current day 9-11 researchers. My first instinct was to simply dismiss this interest as transient, one of many analytical cul-de-sacs concerning the events of 9-11.   However, as I reviewed the files and recalled my own work it occurred to me that the Bobcats are as good a subject as any to address the apparent dichotomy between the work of the Commission Staff and the notion held by some that the work of the Commission was somehow deficient.

The Commission Staff considered many things in its work. Anyone who has perused the substantial Commission files posted to the web by NARA, History Commons, and 9-11myths will recognize that the effort was massive, diverse, and often complicated. As a reminder, at most, NARA has released only 35% of Commission files, mostly desk files and MFRs. Still to come are the paper files (the originals received via document requests, both classified and unclassified) the electronic files on the classified and unclassified servers, and the audio files, both those received and those from our recorded interviews.

Snapshots of the Commission’s work are prone to misinterpretation. In the introduction to the Scott Trilogy I refer to this tendency as the imposition of post facto understanding and awareness on facto and pre-facto conditions. Discrete pieces of staff work are just that, pieces of a vastly larger puzzle; sometimes they fit, sometimes they don’t. Consideration of the Bobcats is one such piece of work, one that seemed to fit, yet didn’t.

The Bobcats, briefly an item of interest

The Bobcats became, briefly, an item of interest to the Commission Staff because of a single analytical question. Given that the military was a significant daily user of the nation’s airspace; and given that the formal air defense response was not effective; and given that FAA controllers vectored the Air National Guard C-130H, Gofer 06, to follow AA 77; what, if any, other military aircraft already in the air might have been used in some manner in response to the attack on the nation’s capital?

Primary source (radar and air traffic control transmissions) analysis revealed five military aircraft airborne in the area of the Pentagon, shown in this circa July 2003 staff workup.

bobcats

The  depiction is a screen print of 84th RADES radar data filtered to show  specific aircraft and all primary returns in the DC area for the 13 minute period beginning at 9:25.  “Sword 1″ is actually “Word 31.”

The Bobcats

Radar files and air traffic control communications clearly show that a pair of aircraft in trail formation, Bobcat 14 and Bobcat 17, transited the DC area northeast to southwest in the same time frame that AA77 was approaching the area from the West.  Bobcat Flight PathThis image depicts their transit as recorded in 84th RADES files. Their path is consistent with the established flight plan as depicted on en route flight strips.

According to ZDC flight strips the Bobcats were a scheduled flight of T-2 aircraft from Dover Air Force Base to Knoxville, TN. The T-2 is a two-seat jet trainer used by the Navy.

The pair took off around 9:15 and headed westerly  to a navigational point near Baltimore at which time they turned south and checked in with DCA TRACON, Bobcat 14 at 9:31:30 and Bobcat 17 at 9:32:16.  They proceeded through DCA airspace and were handed off to ZDC on a heading of 245; Bobcat 14 at 9:35 and Bobcat 17 seven minutes later.  There is nothing unusual about their flight plan, their route which followed the flight plan, or their presence in DC airspace.

No Involvement

There is no primary or secondary source information that links the Bobcats in any way to events of the day. They were simply two more aircraft in the sky that just happened to be military aircraft. They did not dwell in the area, were at altitude, and were not an issue to pursue. DCA TRACON did not vector them when controllers learned at 9:33 of an unknown aircraft approaching. Gofer 06 was the better, in fact only, choice.  And that answered the analytical question.

Another example of a snapshot

In an MFR addendum after our visit to Reagan National I wrote the following: “[Note: flight strips and other information indicate that Bobcat 14 and Bobcat 17 originated out of Dover Air Force Base in Delaware. JSS radar data shows that they flew in trail at 21,000 feet and were overhead during the last few minutes of the flight of American Air 77. It is possible, but not confirmed, that they were Air Force corporate passenger jets.]”

That estimate was based on the fact the flight originated from an Air Force Base, that an Air Force squadron used the Bobcat call sign, and that FAA in the cover sheet of the DCA TRACON partial transcript labeled them as Air Force. Retrospectively, knowledgeable Air Force sources inform me that the fact that the flight was “TACAN” only is sufficient to rule out that they were Air Force passenger aircraft. Those sources also inform me that the flight strips clearly indicate these were not VIP aircraft.

A question begged, what about the other three hijacked aircraft?

For those who are wondering about the other hijacked flights, here is the answer.  I recall checking the radar concerning AA 11 and UA 175. The fact that I did not make screen prints is a strong indication that I found nothing remarkable.  I did, however, make a screen print for UA 93 but the analytical question was different.

Given the Rumsfeld statement and given the speculation that UA 93 was shot down, what planes were in the vicinity of UA 93 in its last moments?  A circa summer 2003 staff workup, UA 93 crash site based on 84th RADES radar files, shows the spatial and time relationship among UA 93, Gofer 06, and the Falcon jet vectored by air traffic control to use its GPS to obtain the crash site coordinates, which it did.  The slow moving aircraft, labeled 0572C and tracking northward, was the only other plane in the general area; it was not a factor.

In sum

With the crystal clarity of 20-20 hindsight we can establish that the Bobcats were military jets on a routine, pre-scheduled flight. They were not an issue concerning the events of that morning.

There will not be a test.